Dispatch archive

• 2026-08-13Today, the market cycle reads Phase 4 euphoria (top/bubble · caution) — where sentiment has run to an extreme and upside is stretched; confidence High (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLE, SMH, XLV; flowing out (distribution): XLP, IBIT, FBTC.
• 2026-08-12Today, the market cycle reads Phase 4 euphoria (top/bubble · caution) — where sentiment has run to an extreme and upside is stretched; confidence High (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLV; flowing out (distribution): SPY, QQQ, XLK, XLP. ⚠️ money leaving while structure holds (strong distribution in 2 sectors)
• 2026-08-11Today, the market cycle reads Phase 4 euphoria (top/bubble · caution) — where sentiment has run to an extreme and upside is stretched; confidence High (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLF, XLV.
• 2026-08-09This week, the market cycle reads Phase 4 euphoria (top/bubble · caution) — where sentiment has run to an extreme and upside is stretched; confidence High (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): SPY, QQQ, XLK, SMH, XLF, XLI, IBIT, FBTC; flowing out (distribution): XLE.
• 2026-08-08Today, the market cycle reads Phase 4 euphoria fading (caution) — valuation is still extreme while the composite slips from its high — the top-risk warning stays on until valuation normalises or the downturn is confirmed; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): SPY, QQQ, XLK, SMH, XLF, XLI, IBIT, FBTC; flowing out (distribution): XLE.
• 2026-08-07Today, the market cycle reads Phase 4 euphoria fading (caution) — valuation is still extreme while the composite slips from its high — the top-risk warning stays on until valuation normalises or the downturn is confirmed; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): SPY, QQQ, SMH, XLI; flowing out (distribution): XLE, XLP.
• 2026-07-26This week, the market cycle reads Phase 4 euphoria fading (caution) — valuation is still extreme while the composite slips from its high — the top-risk warning stays on until valuation normalises or the downturn is confirmed; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLE, XLI.
• 2026-07-25Today, the market cycle reads Phase 4 euphoria (top/bubble · caution) — where sentiment has run to an extreme and upside is stretched; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLE, XLI.
• 2026-07-24Today, the market cycle reads Phase 4 euphoria (top/bubble · caution) — where sentiment has run to an extreme and upside is stretched; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLE; flowing out (distribution): SPY, QQQ, XLF, XLP.
• 2026-07-23Today, the market cycle reads Phase 4 euphoria (top/bubble · caution) — where sentiment has run to an extreme and upside is stretched; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLE; flowing out (distribution): SPY, XLF.
• 2026-07-22Today, the market cycle reads Phase 4 euphoria (top/bubble · caution) — where sentiment has run to an extreme and upside is stretched; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLE, FBTC; flowing out (distribution): SPY, QQQ, XLK, SMH, XLI.
• 2026-07-21Today, the market cycle reads Phase 4 euphoria (top/bubble · caution) — where sentiment has run to an extreme and upside is stretched; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLE, FBTC; flowing out (distribution): SPY, QQQ, XLK, SMH, XLV.
• 2026-07-19This week, the market cycle reads Phase 4 euphoria (top/bubble · caution) — where sentiment has run to an extreme and upside is stretched; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLE, XLF; flowing out (distribution): SPY, QQQ, XLK, SMH. ⚠️ money leaving while structure holds (strong distribution in 2 sectors)
• 2026-07-18Today, the market cycle reads Phase 3 (optimism) — sentiment turning optimistic; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLE, XLF; flowing out (distribution): SPY, QQQ, XLK, SMH.
• 2026-07-17Today, the market cycle reads Phase 3 (optimism) — sentiment turning optimistic; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLE, XLF, XLP, IBIT; flowing out (distribution): QQQ, XLK, SMH.
• 2026-07-16Today, the market cycle reads Phase 3 (optimism) — sentiment turning optimistic; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): SPY, XLF, IBIT; flowing out (distribution): XLV.
• 2026-07-15Today, the market cycle reads Phase 3 (optimism) — sentiment turning optimistic; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): QQQ, XLE, XLK, SMH, XLF; flowing out (distribution): XLV.
• 2026-07-14Today, the market cycle reads Phase 3 (optimism) — sentiment turning optimistic; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLE; flowing out (distribution): XLI.
• 2026-07-12This week, the market cycle reads Phase 3 (optimism) — sentiment turning optimistic; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): QQQ, XLE, XLK, SMH, IBIT, FBTC; flowing out (distribution): XLV.
• 2026-07-11Today, the market cycle reads Phase 2/3 transition — the boundary where scepticism gives way to optimism; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): QQQ, XLE, XLK, SMH, IBIT, FBTC; flowing out (distribution): XLV.
• 2026-07-10Today, the market cycle reads Phase 2/3 transition — the boundary where scepticism gives way to optimism; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLE, IBIT, FBTC.
• 2026-07-09Today, the market cycle reads Phase 2/3 transition — the boundary where scepticism gives way to optimism; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLE, IBIT, FBTC; flowing out (distribution): SPY, QQQ, XLK, SMH.
• 2026-07-08Today, the market cycle reads Phase 2/3 transition — the boundary where scepticism gives way to optimism; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLF, IBIT, FBTC; flowing out (distribution): QQQ, SMH.
• 2026-07-07Today, the market cycle reads Phase 2/3 transition — the boundary where scepticism gives way to optimism; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLF, XLI, IBIT, FBTC; flowing out (distribution): XLE.
• 2026-07-05This week, the market cycle reads Phase 2/3 transition — the boundary where scepticism gives way to optimism; confidence Medium (how closely the evidence layers agree in direction). Money is flowing steadily in (accumulation): XLF, XLV, IBIT, FBTC; flowing out (distribution): XLE, SMH.
• 2026-07-04Today, the market cycle reads Phase 2/3 transition, confidence Medium. Accumulation: XLF, XLV, IBIT, FBTC; distribution: XLE, SMH.
• 2026-07-03Today, the market cycle reads Stage 2/3 transition, confidence Medium. Accumulation: XLF, XLV, IBIT, FBTC; distribution: XLE, SMH.
• 2026-07-02Today's market cycle positioning Stage 3 (optimistic) (Stage 3), confidence High. Accumulation: XLV; Distribution: XLE.
• 2026-07-01Today's market cycle positioning Stage 3 (Optimistic) (Stage3), confidence High. Accumulation: XLV, XLI; Distribution: XLE, IBIT, FBTC.
• 2026-06-30Today's market cycle positioning: Stage 3 (Optimistic) (Stage 3), confidence High. Accumulation: XLV; Distribution: FBTC.
• 2026-06-28This week's market cycle positioning: Stage 3 (Optimistic) (Stage 3), Confidence High. Accumulation: XLV; Distribution: SPY, QQQ, SMH, IBIT, FBTC.
• 2026-06-27Today's market cycle positioning Phase 2/3 transition (Phase 3), confidence Medium. Accumulation: XLV; Distribution: SPY, QQQ, SMH, IBIT, FBTC.
• 2026-06-26Today's market cycle positioning: Phase 2/3 transition (Phase 3), confidence Medium. Accumulation: XLV, XLI; Distribution: IBIT, FBTC.
• 2026-06-25Today's market cycle positioning: Phase 2/3 transition (Phase 3), confidence Medium. Distribution: SPY, QQQ, XLF, IBIT, FBTC.
• 2026-06-24Today's market cycle positioning stage 2/3 transition (stage 3), confidence Medium. Distribution: SPY, QQQ, IBIT, FBTC.
• 2026-06-23Today's market cycle positioning: stage 2/3 transition (stage 3), confidence Medium. Accumulation: SMH, XLI; distribution: XLE, XLP.
• 2026-06-21本周市场周期定位 阶段 2/3 过渡(阶段3),置信度 Medium。吸筹:SMH、XLI;派发:XLE、XLV、XLP、IBIT。
• 2026-06-20Today's market cycle positioning: Stage 4 euphoria (top/bubble·caution)(Stage 5), confidence High. Accumulation: SMH, XLI; Distribution: XLE, XLV, XLP, IBIT.
• 2026-06-19Today's market cycle positioning: Phase 4 euphoria (top/bubble·caution)(Phase 5), confidence High. Accumulation: SMH, XLI; Distribution: XLE, XLV, XLP, IBIT.
• 2026-06-18Today's market cycle positioning: Phase 4 euphoria (top/bubble·caution) (Phase 5), confidence High. Accumulation: XLK, SMH, XLF, XLI, FBTC; Distribution: XLE, XLP.
• 2026-06-17Today's market cycle positioning: Phase 4 euphoria (top/bubble·caution) (Phase 5), confidence High. Accumulation: XLF, XLI, FBTC; Distribution: XLE.
• 2026-06-16Today's market cycle positioning: Phase 4 euphoria (top/bubble·caution) (Phase 5), confidence High. Accumulation: XLF, XLI; Distribution: XLE.
• 2026-06-14This week's market cycle: Stage 4 euphoria (top/bubble·caution) (Stage 5), confidence High. Accumulation: XLF.
• 2026-06-13Today's market cycle positioning Stage 4 exuberance (top/bubble·caution) (Stage 5), confidence Medium. Accumulation: XLF.
• 2026-06-12Today's market cycle positioning Stage 4 Euphoria (Top/Bubble·Caution) (Stage 5), confidence Medium. Weekly fund signal predominantly neutral.