// DAILY DISPATCH2026-06-13
Today's market cycle positioning Stage 4 exuberance (top/bubble·caution) (Stage 5), confidence Medium. Accumulation: XLF.
Cycle stage
Stage 5 · 阶段 4 亢奋（顶/泡沫·警惕）
Confidence
Medium
| ETF | Sector | This wk | Prev wk | A/D | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | +0.57% | -2.50% | NEUTRAL | SPY (SPY) this week +0.57%, fund signal NEUTRAL. |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | +2.31% | -4.50% | NEUTRAL | QQQ (QQQ) this week +2.31%, fund signal NEUTRAL. |
| XLE | Energy | -0.21% | +2.45% | NEUTRAL | Energy (XLE) this week -0.21%, fund signal NEUTRAL. |
| XLK | Technology | +2.50% | -5.61% | NEUTRAL | Technology (XLK) this week +2.50%, fund signal NEUTRAL. |
| SMH | Semiconductors (tech sub-sector) | +8.82% | -4.88% | NEUTRAL | Semiconductors (tech subsector) (SMH) this week +8.82%, fund signal NEUTRAL. |
| XLF | Financials | +1.99% | +1.40% | ACCUMULATION | Financials (XLF) this week +1.99%, fund signal ACCUMULATION. |
| XLV | Health Care | +0.52% | +2.37% | NEUTRAL | Healthcare (XLV) this week +0.52%, fund signal NEUTRAL. |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | +2.85% | +0.64% | NEUTRAL | Consumer Staples (XLP) this week +2.85%, fund signal NEUTRAL. |
| XLI | Industrials | +1.15% | +0.61% | NEUTRAL | Industrials (XLI) this week +1.15%, fund signal NEUTRAL. |
| IBIT | Bitcoin (iShares) | +5.57% | -17.99% | NEUTRAL | IBIT (IBIT) this week +5.57%, fund signal NEUTRAL. |
| FBTC | Bitcoin (Fidelity) | +5.51% | -17.90% | NEUTRAL | FBTC (FBTC) this week +5.51%, fund signal NEUTRAL. |
Core reading
This week's sector fund flows see table above; ACCUMULATION is net inflow (accumulation), DISTRIBUTION is net outflow (distribution).
Composite read
0.00Stage 5 · 阶段 4 亢奋（顶/泡沫·警惕） · Medium
Sector dispersion
7.2Medium
| Sector | Stage | Dist | Slope | Judgment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | S2 | +22.6% | +4.3% | Technology (XLK): Weinstein Stage 2·uptrend, above moving average +22.6%. |
| XLE | S2 | +8.8% | +4.7% | Energy (XLE): Weinstein Stage 2·uptrend, above moving average +8.8%. |
| XLF | S3 | +2.0% | -0.3% | Financials (XLF): Weinstein Stage 3·distribution (top), above moving average +2.0%. |
| XLV | S2 | +1.3% | +0.5% | Healthcare (XLV): Weinstein Stage 2·uptrend, above moving average +1.3%. |
| XLP | S2 | +4.2% | +1.3% | Consumer Staples (XLP): Weinstein Stage 2·uptrend, above moving average +4.2%. |
| XLI | S2 | +6.3% | +2.0% | Industrials (XLI): Weinstein Stage 2·uptrend, above moving average +6.3%. |
| SMH | S2 | +44.2% | +10.2% | Semiconductors (tech subsector) (SMH): Weinstein Stage 2·uptrend, above moving average +44.2%. |
Today's core read
Cycle positioning: Stage 4 exuberance (top/bubble·caution) (Stage 5), confidence Medium. Sector dispersion medium.